Walled Off?

There’s an old saying that good fences make good neighbors. That may not be the case when it comes to the United States and Mexico, however.

On January 25, President Donald Trump acted on a key campaign promise. He issued an executive order calling for the “immediate construction” of a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Trump says the wall will stop people from entering the U.S. illegally—and has promised that Mexico will pay to build it.

After Trump posted a video on Twitter announcing the news, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto tweeted a video of his own. “Mexico will not pay for any wall,” he said.

Trump fired back. He tweeted that perhaps the two men should cancel their upcoming meeting at the White House. Peña Nieto agreed. He pulled out of the sit-down.

The testy back-and-forth came after months of tension between the U.S. and its southern neighbor. Trump has repeatedly characterized Mexico as a source of undocumented immigrants, drugs, and unfair trade practices that hurt the U.S. economy. He says he will deal with these issues by walling off the country, increasing deportations, and overhauling trade agreements.

Trump’s proposals—and his harsh words—have angered many Mexicans. They see Trump as a bully and are pressuring Peña Nieto to stand up to him.

Both the U.S. and Mexico have much to lose if their relationship turns hostile. The two countries are important economic partners, conducting more than $580 billion of trade every year. They’re also allies that cooperate on border security and other issues. Now, those deep ties are threatened.

There is an old saying that good fences make good neighbors. But that may not be the case when it comes to the United States and Mexico.

On January 25, President Donald Trump acted on a key campaign promise. He issued an executive order calling for the “immediate construction” of a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Trump says the wall will stop people from entering the U.S. illegally. He also has promised that Mexico will pay to build it.

Trump posted a video on Twitter announcing the news. Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto then tweeted a video of his own. “Mexico will not pay for any wall,” he said.

Trump fired back. He tweeted that perhaps the two men should cancel their upcoming meeting at the White House. Peña Nieto agreed. He pulled out of the sit-down.

The testy back-and-forth came after months of tension between the U.S. and its southern neighbor. Trump has again and again called Mexico a source of undocumented immigrants, drugs, and unfair trade practices that hurt the U.S. economy. He says he will deal with these issues by walling off the country, increasing deportations, and changing trade agreements.

Trump’s proposals and harsh words have angered many Mexicans. They see Trump as a bully. They are pressuring Peña Nieto to stand up to him.

Both the U.S. and Mexico have much to lose if their relationship turns hostile. The two countries are important economic partners. They conduct more than $580 billion of trade every year. They also are allies that work together on border security and other issues. Now, those deep ties are threatened.

Mexico and the U.S. share a long, turbulent history. (See “Timeline: The U.S. & Mexico.”) In the past three decades, however, the relationship has improved greatly. At the same time, Mexico has dramatically transformed.

Since the 1994 adoption of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)—which opened up trade among the U.S., Mexico, and Canada—Mexico’s exports (the goods it ships to other countries) have soared. In addition to growing much of the produce Americans eat, Mexico now makes and sells cars, electronics, and appliances. 

Mexico and the U.S. share a long and sometimes stormy history. (See “Timeline: The U.S. & Mexico.”) In the past three decades, however, the relationship has improved greatly. At the same time, Mexico has changed dramatically.

In 1994, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was adopted. It opened up trade among the U.S., Mexico, and Canada. Since then, Mexico’s exports (the goods it ships to other countries) have soared. Mexico grows much of the produce Americans eat. It also now makes and sells cars, electronics, and appliances.

As the Mexican economy grew, life improved for many of its 128 million citizens. Almost half of Mexico’s households are now considered middle class. Kids stay in school an average of twice as long as they did 25 years ago, says Shannon K. O’Neil of the Council on Foreign Relations.

“Today, your average 15-year-old in Mexico is thinking about the quiz he’s going to take on Friday, not about migrating to the U.S. to look for work,” she says.

Indeed, Mexico’s economic gains mean that fewer of its people are heading to the U.S. illegally in search of jobs. The number of undocumented Mexicans in the U.S. dropped from a high of 6.9 million in 2007 to 5.8 million in 2014, according to the Pew Research Center.

As the Mexican economy grew, life improved for many of its 128 million citizens. Almost half of Mexico’s households are now ­considered middle class. Kids stay in school an average of twice as long as they did 25 years ago, says ­Shannon K. O’Neil of the Council on Foreign Relations.

“Today, your average 15-year-old in Mexico is thinking about the quiz he’s going to take on Friday, not about [moving] to the U.S. to look for work,” she says.

Indeed, Mexico’s economic gains mean that fewer of its people are heading to the U.S. illegally in search of jobs. The number of undocumented Mexicans in the U.S. dropped from a high of 6.9 million in 2007 to 5.8 million in 2014, according to the Pew Research Center.

Despite positive changes, Mexico faces serious challenges in the form of poverty, violence, and a big illegal drug trade. And Mexicans still represent about half of the 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the U.S.

Because of these issues, many Americans support Trump’s plans to seal off the border. They say undocumented immigrants are 

taking American jobs, and they blame them for increasing crime rates. Trump himself has repeatedly implied that many undocumented immigrants are criminals—calling them “bad hombres”—and vowed to deport them. 

As far as paying for the wall, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan says Congress will fund the project, which could cost more than 

$21 billion and take until the end of 2020 to complete. “[Trump] has a promise he made to the American people, which is to secure our border,” Ryan said recently. “A wall is a big part of that.”

But if the U.S. builds the barrier, it may face new threats at the southern border. Mexico currently collaborates with the U.S. on counterterrorism efforts. For example, Mexico shares information on potential terrorism suspects with the U.S. Jorge Castañeda, Mexico’s former foreign secretary, says that kind of assistance could end if Trump carries out his plans. “Let’s see if his wall keeps the terrorists out,” Castañeda told The New York Times. “Because we won’t.”

Despite positive changes, Mexico faces serious challenges in the form of poverty, violence, and a big illegal drug trade. And Mexicans still represent about half of the 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the U.S.

Because of these issues, many Americans support Trump’s plans to seal off the border. They say undocumented immigrants are ­taking American jobs. They also blame such people for increasing crime rates. Trump himself has often hinted that many undocumented immigrants are criminals. He has called them “bad hombres” and promised to deport them.

As far as paying for the wall, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan says Congress will fund the project. It could cost more than $21 ­billion and take until the end of 2020 to complete. “[Trump] has a promise he made to the American people, which is to secure our border,” Ryan said recently. “A wall is a big part of that.”

But if the U.S. builds the barrier, it may face new threats at the southern border. Mexico now works with the U.S. on efforts to fight terrorism. For example, Mexico shares information on potential terrorism suspects with U.S. offficials. Jorge Castañeda is Mexico’s former foreign secretary. He says that kind of assistance could end if Trump ­carries out his plans. “Let’s see if his wall keeps the terrorists out,” Castañeda told The New York Times. “Because we won’t.”

In Mexico’s view, the best way for the U.S. to combat illegal immigration is to support the Mexican economy. The reasoning: Good opportunities at home mean that Mexicans won’t need to go to the U.S. to find jobs.

That’s one reason withdrawing the U.S. from the NAFTA trade deal—as Trump has suggested—could backfire. He says the pact created unfair incentives for U.S. companies to move jobs to Mexico. Yet many experts warn that the end of the deal could have devastating consequences for both countries.

For instance, though the pact costs U.S. jobs, it also creates millions of new ones. And both nations depend on the $1.2 billion in goods and services that cross the border every day. U.S. grocery stores may be hit with shortages and higher prices on bananas, avocados, tomatoes, and other produce grown in Mexico. In turn, U.S. farmers—who send their produce to Mexico—could lose a critical export market.

In Mexico’s view, the best way for the U.S. to fight illegal immigration is to support the Mexican economy. The reason? Good opportunities at home mean that Mexicans will not have to go to the U.S. to find jobs.

That is one reason withdrawing the U.S. from the NAFTA trade deal could backfire. Trump has suggested such a withdrawal. He says that the agreement created unfair incentives for U.S. companies to move jobs to Mexico. Yet many experts warn that ending the deal could result in great harm to both countries.

For instance, the pact does cost U.S. jobs. But it also creates millions of new ones. And both nations depend on the $1.2 billion in goods and services that cross the border every day. U.S. grocery stores may be hit with shortages and higher prices on bananas, avocados, tomatoes, and other produce grown in Mexico. In turn, U.S. farmers who send their produce to Mexico could lose an important export market.

In Mexico, Trump’s agenda has generated fear, anger—and a surge of national pride. 

“Mexicans are very proud of their country,” says O’Neil. “So there’s outrage that any country, but particularly the U.S., would . . . dismiss them and bully them.”

Some Mexicans have pledged to boycott American products and stop vacationing in the U.S. And they may elect their own version of Trump in 2018. Andrés Manuel López Obrador—a tough-talking populist who promises to stand up to the U.S.—is a leading presidential contender.

In the meantime, Peña Nieto and Trump are trying to sort out their differences. The two leaders spoke by phone after their Twitter feud. 

“We will work for a border that unites us, not one that divides us,” Peña Nieto said recently. “Mexico doesn’t believe in walls. Our country believes in bridges.” 

In Mexico, Trump’s plans have sparked fear, anger, and a surge of national pride.

“Mexicans are very proud of their country,” says O’Neil. “So there’s outrage that any country, but ­particularly the U.S., would . . . ­dismiss them and bully them.”

Some Mexicans have promised to boycott American products and stop vacationing in the U.S. And they may elect their own version of Trump in 2018. Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a tough-talking populist who promises to stand up to the U.S., is a leading presidential hopeful.

In the meantime, Peña Nieto and Trump are trying to sort out their differences. The two leaders spoke by phone after their Twitter feud.

“We will work for a border that unites us, not one that divides us,” Peña Nieto said recently. “Mexico doesn’t believe in walls. Our country believes in bridges.”