India’s Growing Pains

For centuries, China has had more people than any other place on Earth. But that East Asian giant is about to lose its top spot. 

New projections from the United Nations (U.N.) show that India is likely to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in 2023, with a population of more than 1.44 billion people. After that, China’s population is projected to decline, while India’s will continue to climb during the next few decades (see graph below).

The South Asian country’s growth reflects the planet’s. Overall, the U.N. report says, the global population continues to increase at a rapid pace. It has more than tripled since the mid-20th century and could exceed 10 billion people by 2059.

Population growth is not necessarily a good thing. The more people a country has, the more it has to care for. Overpopulation can put a severe strain on a nation’s economy and lead to widespread extreme poverty—a challenge India already faces. According to the World Bank, in 2017 more than 20 percent of Indians lived on less than $1.90 per day. 

For centuries, China has had more people than any other place on Earth. But that East Asian giant is about to lose its top spot.

New projections from the United Nations (U.N.) show that India is likely to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in 2023. Its population will then be more than 1.44 billion people. After that, China’s population is projected to decline. But India’s will continue to climb during the next few decades (see graph below).

The South Asian country’s growth reflects the planet’s. The U.N. report says that overall, the global population continues to increase rapidly. It has more than tripled since the mid-20th century. It could be more than 10 billion people by 2059.

Population growth is not necessarily a good thing. The more people a country has, the more it has to care for. Overpopulation can put a severe strain on a nation’s economy. It can also lead to widespread extreme poverty, a challenge India already faces. In 2017, more than 20 percent of Indians lived on less than $1.90 per day. That is according to the World Bank.

India has been trying to limit its population growth since it gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1947. Even then, the young developing nation was concerned about having more people than it could provide with food, housing, health care, education, and clean water. In 1952, India became the first country to use government programs to try to slow the number of new births.

One of India’s most important efforts in recent decades has been to promote education and career opportunities for women. With such advantages, women tend to improve their families’ economic well-being. Studies also show that they start having children later in life, which reduces the size of families. This can, in turn, benefit the next generation. In the past, many kids in India had to work to help support their families. Now, in the best cases, their families can afford to send them to school instead.

India’s efforts have led to some progress in raising the general standard of living in the country. One recent study estimated that between 2005 and 2017, the nation was able to lift hundreds of millions of its people out of poverty.

India has been trying to limit its population growth since 1947. That is when it gained independence from the United Kingdom. Even then, the young developing nation was concerned about having more people than it could provide with food, housing, health care, education, and clean water. In 1952, India became the first country to use government programs to try to slow the number of new births.

One of India’s most important efforts in recent decades has been to promote education and career opportunities for women. With such advantages, women tend to improve their families’ economic well-being. Studies also show that they start having children later in life. That reduces the size of families. This can be good for the next generation. In the past, many kids in India had to work to help support their families. Now, in the best cases, their families can afford to send them to school instead.

India’s efforts have led to some progress in raising the general standard of living there. One recent study estimated that between 2005 and 2017, the nation was able to lift hundreds of millions of its people out of poverty.

Yet providing for all of India’s citizens remains a daunting task. Adding to the difficulty is the matter of population density, or the average number of people per square mile (see "Understanding Population Density," below). Compared with the U.S., India has about four times as many people but only one-third the land area.

The problem is most keenly felt in urban areas. Mumbai, Delhi, and other large cities in India are among the world’s most crowded. According to the World Population Review, Mumbai has about 83,660 people per square mile. (New York City, the most densely populated city in the U.S., has some 29,729.) Having so many people packed into a place can lead to the spread of disease, poor sanitation, pollution, and high crime.

Yet providing for all of India’s citizens is still an overwhelming task. Adding to the difficulty is the matter of population density. That is the average number of people per square mile (see "Understanding Population Density," below). Compared with the U.S., India has about four times as many people. But it has only one-third the land area.

The problem is most strongly felt in urban areas. India’s large cities like Mumbai and Delhi are among the most crowded in the world. Mumbai has about 83,660 people per square mile. That is according to the World Population Review. (New York City is the most densely populated U.S. city. It has about 29,729 people per square mile.) Having so many people packed into a place can lead to the spread of disease, poor sanitation, pollution, and high crime.

India’s increasing population isn’t all bad news, experts say. One recent study estimates that within the next few decades, the nation will have about 22 percent of the world’s workforce-age people. This could make India a global economic powerhouse as it nears the 100th anniversary of its independence.

The trick will be to channel the growth for good, says Aparajita Chattopadhyay, a professor at the International Institute for Population Sciences in Mumbai. To do so, India will need to provide education, job training, and employment to many more of its people.  

“We need to absorb the young population in our workforce,” says Chattopadhyay. “And especially, we need to encourage women to get an education.”

Experts say that India’s increasing population is not all bad news. One recent study estimates that within the next few decades, the nation will have about 22 percent of the world’s workforce-age people. This could make India a global economic powerhouse as it nears the 100th anniversary of its independence.

The trick will be to channel the growth for good, says Aparajita Chattopadhyay. She is a professor at the International Institute for Population Sciences in Mumbai. To do so, India will need to provide education, job training, and employment to many more of its people.

“We need to absorb the young population in our workforce,” says Chattopadhyay. “And especially, we need to encourage women to get an education.”